Precipitation Prediction System over the Pacific Islands

H. Annamalai1 (PI), K. P. Sooraj1, A. Kumar2 (Co-PI), H. Wang2, & M. Lander3 (Co-PI)

1. International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, USA
2. Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, Washington D.C, USA
3. Water and Environmental Research Institute, University of Guam, USA

Our Mission

For all U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI), we have developed a prototype long range precipitation prediction system based on NOAA’s operational Climate Forecast System (CFS).  Development of such a system is expected to fill a critical gap in the Climate Prediction Systems suite of operational forecasts for the USAPI that currently are purely derived based on empirical techniques. The vision of the Climate Test Bed (CTB) is to “significantly increase the accuracy, reliability, and scope of NOAA's suite of operational climate forecast products to meet the needs of a diverse user community”. The multi-institutional collaboration, by bringing in the local and operational expertise, has allowed the development of a real-time precipitation forecast system for the USAPI.

Real-time prediction

We are using the prediction system to issue experimental long-range forecasts. The forecasts for each region (Figure above) can be asscessed below for various lead times into the future. Our terminaology for the lead times is such that a "0 month" forecast for JFM2010 would be produced using December 2009 initital conditions, a "1 month" forecast for FMA2010 would be produced using December 2009 initital condition, and so on.

Lead time (month)
Hawaii 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
western north Pacific 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
south Pacific 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Seasonal prediction and other sites

Users with a need for precipitation forecasts over the next three months may want to consult the web site of the UH/National Weather Service Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center who have real time forecasts for 14 individual stations in Hawaii and other USAPI.

For technical details