Marshall Islands Climate Outlook  

This website provides access to a broad range of information related to seasonal climate variability in the Republic of the Marshall Isalnds. It includes a quick-look at current and future conditions for a range of climate indicators, direct access to more detailed outlook-related information from stations and statellites, and products that place this information in a histrorical context. It also includes links to addtional sources of information.

NOAA State of the Ocean

Surface ocean indices (updated week of 10-SEP-2023)

 Pacific
current value
series std
current value key »
monthly tendency key »
 Niño1+2 far eastern equatorial SSTA  map »
2.89 °C
±1.09 °C
 Niño3 eastern equatorial SSTA  map »
2.11 °C
±0.89 °C
 Niño3.4 central equatorial SSTA  map »
1.51 °C
±0.86 °C
 Niño4 west-central equatorial SSTA  map »
1.10 °C
±0.66 °C

 

Atmospheric teleconnection indices

 
updated
latest monthly value
series std
latest 3‑mon value key »
latest 3‑mon tendency key »
latest 1‑yr mean value key »
latest 1‑yr tendency key »
 AO  Arctic Oscillation
15-AUG-2023
-0.60
±1
 NAO  North Atlantic Oscillation
15-AUG-2023
-1.16
±1
 PNA  Pacific-North America Pattern
15-AUG-2023
0.45
±1
 PDO  Pacific Decadal Oscillation
15-AUG-2023
-1.97
±1
 SAM  Southern Annular Mode
15-AUG-2023
-0.04
±1
 SOI  Southern Oscillation Index
15-AUG-2023
-1.40
±1.55
 AMO  Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
15-JAN-2023
0.19
±0.22

 

Key to symbols

value of the index
(over the period indicated to latest value)

 strongly positive (+1 std < x)
 weakly positive (+0.3 std < x < +1 std)
 neutral (-0.3 std < x < +0.3 std)
 weakly negative (-1 std < x < -0.3 std)
 strongly negative (x < -1 std)

x = value of the index over the period indicated to the latest value

std = series standard deviation over period of the climatology

tendency
(rate of change over period indicated to latest value)

 strong positive tendency (+1 stdx < dx)
 weak positive tendency (+0.3 stdx < dx < +1 stdx)
 no change (-0.3 stdx < dx < +0.3 stdx)
 weak negative tendency (-1 stdx < dx < -0.3 stdx)
 strong negative tendency(dx < -1 stdx)

dx = slope of linear fit to values over the period of time indicated,
ending at latest value of the index
stdx = standard deviation of dx over the period of the climatology

 

source: http://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/all/


The above plot is based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2).
Forecasts are from initial conditions of the last 30 days, with 4 runs from each day. Forecast ensembles consist of 40 members from initial a period of 10 days. The figure shows "normal" conditions as approximated by the mean seasonal cycle, past conditions based on CFSv2 reanalysis, and future projections from the model forecast. The climatology and anomalies are created using values from 1999-2010.








The above plot is based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2).
Forecasts are from initial conditions of the last 30 days, with 4 runs from each day. Forecast ensembles consist of 40 members from initial a period of 10 days. The figure shows "normal" conditions as approximated by the mean seasonal cycle, past conditions based on CFSv2 reanalysis, and future projections from the model forecast. The climatology and anomalies are created using values from 1999-2010.








The above plot is based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2).
Forecasts are from initial conditions of the last 30 days, with 4 runs from each day. Forecast ensembles consist of 40 members from initial a period of 10 days. The figure shows "normal" conditions as approximated by the mean seasonal cycle, past conditions based on CFSv2 reanalysis, and future projections from the model forecast. The climatology and anomalies are created using values from 1999-2010.
We remove the recent long-term trend (i.e., model drift or bias) from the prediction (e.g., for forecasts issued in 2017 the 1999–2015 trend is removed).








The above plot is based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2).
Forecasts are from initial conditions of the last 30 days, with 4 runs from each day. Forecast ensembles consist of 40 members from initial a period of 10 days. The figure shows "normal" conditions as approximated by the mean seasonal cycle, past conditions based on CFSv2 reanalysis, and future projections from the model forecast. The climatology and anomalies are created using values from 1999-2010.







Now

Outlook

ENSO and other Climate Indices

IRI ENSO prediction plume

source: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/


IRI ENSO probability bar graphs

source: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/


CFS ENSO Forecast

source: http://www.ncpc.ncep.noaa.gov


Nino 3.4 Historical sea surface temperature index

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/


ESRL current multi-variate ENSO index (MEI)

source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/


CPC MJO Forecast

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/


Nino Regions Anamolies

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/