Hawaii and USAPI Climate Summary

This webpage serves as a digital version of the quarterly "Hawaii and US Pacific Islands Region Climate Impacts and Outlook". The quarterly outlook draws on the PEAC Climate Center's "Pacific ENSO Update" quarterly newsletter and other sources to bring together seasonal predictions and projections alongside information on recent impacts of weather and climate events in a concise and accessible format. The top four tabs (below) mirror the content that can be found in the current outlook.

This webpage also provides access to information used to develop the quarterly outlook in the form of a “dashboard” that aggregates climate variability-related content via links to products and information from a mix of primarily US agencies, institutions, and organizations.

Climate Impacts and Outlook

Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region
3rd Quarter 2022

Significant Events and Impacts for Previous Quarter by Locale

pacific overlook

Highlights for Hawaii and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands

Significant Events and Impacts for Previous Quarter by Sector

Observed coastal flooding (July 14) in Tutuila, American Samoa associated with the historic south-swell event observed during mid-July 2022. Photo credit: National Weather Service, Pago Pago.

Time-series of observed wave height from buoys at the Pearl Harbor Entrance, Oahu, (7/16-18/22) and Aunu’u, American Samoa (7/13-15/22) during the historic surf event. Photo credit: http://www.pacioos.hawaii.edu/waves-category/buoy/

Agriculture – In Maui, the prolonged drought has exacerbated issues associated with axis deer encroachments onto farmlands resulting in severe damage to crops, pastures, and losses for local producers. In late August, the Hawaiʻi Board of Agriculture approved an emergency loan program to address the on-going issue and will accept applications beginning Sept. 1 through Dec. 31, 2022. Additionally, in Upcountry and West Maui, water systems are in a Stage 1 Water Shortage declaration status.


Facilities and Infrastructure – In American Samoa, the historic south swell in mid-July caused considerable damage along the coastlines of Tutuila, Aunu’u, and the Manu’a Islands, with the Governor Mauga declaring a state of emergency in response. On July 14, the PacIOOS buoy off Aunu’u recorded a peak wave height of 15.42 feet. Moreover, airport operations were disrupted with the Pago Pago Airport temporarily closed due to surf reaching the runway as well as on Ofu Island where debris covered portions of the runway. In the Hawaiian Islands, the historic surf event caused numerous impacts including road closures on Kauai, Oahu, and Maui as well as property damage on Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island. Between July 15-18, lifeguards made more than 2,000 rescues around Oahu’s coastlines, with the island normally averaging approximately 2,400 rescues annually.


Water Resources/Wildfire – On the Big Island, the Leilani Fire burned nearly 20,000 acres in the southern extent of the South Kohala District during August 2022, according to the Hawai‘i Department of Land and Natural Resources. In Majuro (RMI), reservoir storage reached 87% of total capacity (28,000,000 million gallons) on Sept 1, 2022.


Satellite analysis of observed sea level height anomalies for August 2022. Warm colors represent above-normal sea levels and cool colors represent below-normal sea levels. Source: University of Hawaii Sea Level Center.

Regional Climate Overview for Previous Quarter

Monthly sea surface temperature anomaly map for 7/31/22 to 8/4/22 (left) and seasonal outgoing long-wave radiation anomalies for Jun–Aug 2022 (right). Areas with more rain/clouds than normal are depicted in green, while areas with fewer clouds/less rain are depicted in brown (right). Sources: NOAA PSL, NOAA NCEP Climate Prediction Center, IRI

Across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (east of 160ºE), sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were below normal with La Niña conditions present All four Niño regions registered negative SST anomalies on the NOAA CPC update (9/5/22) at the end of the JJA period: Niño 3.4 region at -0.8ºC; Niño 3 at -0.4ºC; Niño 1+2 at -0.4ºC; and Niño 4 at -1.1ºC.

During JJA, above-normal sea levels were observed across much of the equatorial western Pacific, while near-normal to below-normal levels were observed across much of the tropical central and eastern Pacific, except for June when above-normal levels were observed in the central Pacific from the Equator to ~5ºN In the Hawaiian Islands, near-normal to slightly-below-normal sea levels (monthly means) were observed during JJA. In the western Pacific, monthly mean sea levels were above normal (10-20 cm) throughout JJA with numerous daily extreme-high sea level records broken during the period (July-August data currently not available) including in Guam (6/10-18), Saipan (6/17-18, 20), Pohnpei, (6/13-14, 28, 7/10-16, 27-28), Kapingamarangi (6/16-17, 29), Pago Pago (6/10-12, 14-21, 27-28) and the Hawaiian Islands at Nawiliwili (6/15-16), according to the University of Hawaiʻi Sea Level Center.

During the JJA period, most of the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands were drought-free except for Moderate (D1) drought observed in southern FSM at Kapingamarangi, according to the U. S. Drought Monitor. Median precipitation for the JJA period ranged from 54% to 138% of normal across areas of the tropical western Pacific including in Palau with Airai recording 43.5 in. (83% of normal). In FSM (for JJA), Yap observed 36.15 in. (82% of normal), Kapingamarangi 16.17 in. (42% of normal), Pohnpei 64.37 in (138% of normal, 6th wettest), Lukunor 22.26 in. (54% of normal, driest on record), Kosrae 62.22 in. (136% of normal, 7th wettest), and Chuuk 29.77 in. (77% of normal, 6th driest). In the Mariana Islands, Saipan observed 28.55 in. (116% of normal) and Guam 27.74 in. (81% of normal). In the RMI, Majuro observed 27.13 in. (79% of normal, 8th driest) for JJA, while Kwajalein logged 31.82 in. (117% of normal). In American Samoa, precipitation was above normal (21.6 in.,122% of normal) at Pago Pago. Across most of the Hawaiian Islands, below-normal rainfall was observed during JJA, exacerbating drought-related conditions across the island chain. For the JJA period, Lihue observed 3.58 in. (61% of normal), Honolulu 0.32 in. (17% of normal), Molokai 1.02 in. (49% of normal), Kahului 0.16 in. (13% of normal), Kailua Kona 4.02 in. (225% of normal), and Hilo 17.96 in. (64% of normal).

In the Northeast Pacific (east of 180º), tropical cyclone (TC) activity has been normal<,/strong> with 11 named storms with an ACE Index of 80.9 (normal 80.3) by 8/31/22. In the Northwest Pacific, TC activity has been below normal with an ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) Index of 58.6 (normal 131.8) and 8 named storms by the end of August, according to the Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Tropical Meteorology Project.


Regional Climate Outlook for Next Quarter

ENSO forecast model predictions – August 2022
Source: IRI/CPC.

According to the majority of ENSO prediction models (see IRI/CPC forecast above), there is a high probability that La Niña conditions will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23. The odds for La Niña are forecasted to decrease progressing through the Northern Hemisphere winter (54% chance for January-March 2023).

NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch four-month (Sept 2022–Dec 2022) coral bleaching heat stress outlook calls for a high probability (90%) of high heat stress bleaching Alert Level 1 (bleaching likely) in the western Pacific including areas in eastern portions of FSM in the vicinity of 5-10ºN latitude. A bleaching Warning (possible bleaching) is forecasted for areas including northern RMI and western FSM.

During the period of September through November 2022, near-normal to below-normal pprecipitation is forecasted for much of USAPI, including areas of FSM (Chuuk, Pohnpei), RMI (Majuro), American Samoa, and across the Hawaiian Islands. Below-normalrecipitation is forecasted for Kosrae (FSM). Meanwhile, above-normal rainfall is expected in Palau, while normal rainfall levels are forecasted for Yap (FSM), Kwajalein (RMI), and in the Mariana Islands (Guam, Saipan), according to the NOAA Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center.

For the next 3 to 6 months, dynamical models (NOAA CFSv2, ACCESS-S2 [Australia]) suggest continuation of above-normal sea level anomalies for many of the South Pacific Islands and areas west of 180º in the tropical Pacific. The forecast of high seasonal sea levels, combined with long-term sea level rise, may raise the high tide water levels by up to 20 cm above tide calendar predictions for some locations in the South Pacific region. Conversely, below-normal sea level anomalies are forecasted across much of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean―consistent with the continuing La Niña event, according to the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center.

Information in the dashboard is grouped first by climate variable and/or impact and then by time frame. Click on any tab in the dashboard, it will expand to show an associated selection of panes. (Click again and it will collapse). Click on any figure in a pane to view a full-sized version, and click again to reduce it. Click on the “?” button to view the figure caption. Note that figures are automatically updated as often as the original providers post them on their respective websites (the update frequency is included in the caption). This means, the figures in the print version of the outlook may not be fully consistent with those found here. Click on the source URL to go to the site where the figure originated and find additional data and information.

Dashboard

Temperature & Precipitation

Recent/Current:

Latest Week of Global Rainfall

source: http://pmm.nasa.gov/TRMM/realtime-3hr-7day-rainfall


Current Total Precipitable Water

source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/wpac/main.html


NCEP Reanalysis Model - Air Temperature (Surface)

source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html


NCEP Reanalysis Model - Precipitable Water (Surface)

source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html


NCEP Reanalysis Model - Air Temperature Anomaly (Surface)

source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html


NCEP Reanalysis Model - Precipitable Water Anomaly (Surface)

source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html


NCEP Reanalysis Model - Relative Humidity (Surface)

source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html


NCEP Reanalysis Model - Sea Level Pressure

source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html


Tropical Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (OLRA) During the Last 30 Days

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


Time-Longitude Section of Anomalous OLR

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


ESRL 30-Day Average OLR Anomaly

source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml


GHCN-M Global Monthly Temperature Anomaly

source: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/ghcn-gridded-products/


Current Total Precipitable Water and Winds

source: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/


GPM Three-Month-Mean Satellite-Derived Precipitation Anomalies

source: https://pmm.nasa.gov/data-access/downloads/gpm


Forecast/Projections:

IRI Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Temperature

source: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Forecasts/Temperature.html


IRI Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation

source: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Forecasts/Precipitation.html


 
CFSv2 Three-Month-Mean Spatial Anomalies (Outlook) - Surface Air Temperature

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml


CFSv2 Three-Month-Mean Spatial Anomalies (Outlook) - Precipitation

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml


 
NMME Three-Month-Mean Spatial Anomalies (Outlook) - Surface Air Temperature

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/


NMME Three-Month-Mean Spatial Anomalies (Outlook) - Precipitation

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/


 

Drought & Stream Flow

Hawaii Drought Area Percentage

source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/


USGS Monthly Streamflow for Hawaii

source: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=hi


Tropical Cyclones & Storms

Tropical Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks

source: http://weather.unisys.com/


 
NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) - Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/


West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks

source: http://weather.unisys.com/


 
Global Tropical Hazards/Benefits Outlook

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/


East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks

source: http://weather.unisys.com/


Sea-Surface Temperatures, Ocean Conditions, & Impacts

Recent/Current:

SST Anomaly Animations - Tropical Pacific

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


SST Anomaly Animations - Equatorial Temperature Anomaly

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


Subsurface SST Anomaly - Tropical Pacific

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) Animations - SST Anomaly

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/


TAO/TRITON SST and Winds - Past 21 Days

source: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/


Coral Reef Watch Products - Bleaching Alert Areas

source: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/baa.php


Coral Reef Watch Products - Coral Bleaching Hotspots

source: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/hotspot.php


Coral Reef Watch Products - Degree Heating Weeks

source: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/dhw.php


OceanWatch - Central Pacific: Aqua MODIS Ocean Color

source: http://oceanwatch.pifsc.noaa.gov


OceanWatch - Central Pacific: Aquarius Sea-Surface Salinity

source: http://oceanwatch.pifsc.noaa.gov


OceanWatch - Central Pacific: GOES-POES Sea-Surface Temperature

source: http://oceanwatch.pifsc.noaa.gov


Forecast/Projections:

CFSv2 Three-Month-Mean Spatial Anomalies (Outlook) - Sea-Surface Temperature

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml


NMME Three-Month-Mean Spatial Anomalies (Outlook) - Sea-Surface Temperature

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/


Probability of Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress

source: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/outlook_cfs.php


Probablisitic Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Warning

source: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/outlook_cfs.php


Sea-Level & Waves

Recent/Current:

OSTM/Jason-3 Satellite Sea Level Residuals - 10 Day Averages

source: http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/


Forecast/Projections:

Pacific Region Sea-Surface Heights

source: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/


WaveWatch III - Pacific Region Wave Height and Direction

source: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-pacific-


 
 

ENSO & Other Climate Indices

Regional Partners

Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center:
http://www.weather.gov/peac/update
NOAA NWS Weather Forecast Office Honolulu :
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/hnl/
NOAA NWS Weather Forecast Office Guam:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/guam/
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information:
http://www.ncei.noaa.gov
NOAA NMFS Pacific Island Fisheries Science Center:
http://www.pifsc.noaa.gov/
NOAA OceanWatch - Central Pacific:
http://oceanwatch.pifsc.noaa.gov/
NOAA Coral Reef Watch:
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/
USGS Pacific Islands Water Science Center:
http://hi.water.usgs.gov/
USGS Science Center - Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center:
http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/
University of Hawaii - Joint Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Research:
http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/jimar/
University of Guam - Water and Environmental Research Institute:
http://www.weriguam.org/
University of Hawaii Sea Level Center:
http://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu/
University of Hawaii Asia-Pacific Data Research Center (APDRC)
http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/

Previous Climate Impacts and Outlook