Hawaii and USAPI Climate Summary

This webpage serves as a digital version of the quarterly "Hawaii and US Pacific Islands Region Climate Impacts and Outlook". The quarterly outlook draws on the PEAC Climate Center's "Pacific ENSO Update" quarterly newsletter and other sources to bring together seasonal predictions and projections alongside information on recent impacts of weather and climate events in a concise and accessible format. The top four tabs (below) mirror the content that can be found in the current outlook.

This webpage also provides access to information used to develop the quarterly outlook in the form of a “dashboard” that aggregates climate variability-related content via links to products and information from a mix of primarily US agencies, institutions, and organizations.

Climate Impacts and Outlook

Hawaii and U.S. Pacific Islands Region
1st Quarter 2025

Significant Events and Impacts for Previous Quarter by Locale

pacific overlook

Highlights for Hawaii and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands

Significant Events and Impacts for Previous Quarter by Sector

Funnel cloud observed on 1/28/25 south of Pago Pago International Airport, Tutuila Island, American Samoa. Source: National Weather Service, Pago Pago.

Severe weather associated with the South Pacific Convergence Zone led to significant landslide activity on Taʻū Island, Manuʻa Islands, American Samoa in late February 2025. Source: Manu’atele Community Worldwide, FB.

Late-January storm event rainfall totals for Oahu, Maui, and Big Island, which brought flash flooding, power outages, and school closures (12/8/24).
Source: National Weather Service, Honolulu.

Facilities and Infrastructure– In the Manuʻa Islands of American Samoa, heavy rainfall and saturated soils triggered landslides that blocked roadways between the villages of Fitiuta, Taʻū, and Faleāsao in late February. In the Hawaiian Islands, a strong low-pressure system brought heavy rainfall and flash flooding across areas of the island chain, with the worst flooding observed in the Kuliʻouʻou and Hawaiʻi Kai areas on Oahu and in southwest Maui in Kīhei, where areas of South Kīhei Road were closed due to flooding which impacted businesses and residences. On the Big Island, flooding led to school closures at 6 public school in South Kona. In addition, Hawaiian Electric reported power outages to customers on Hawaii, Maui, and Oahu counties where gale-force winds downed trees and debris onto power lines (1/30-31/25).


Heat – In the western Pacific, anomalously warm air temperatures were observed during the DJF period in areas of the Marianas, FSM, and RMI (below). In the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Island, Saipan International Airport observed it warmest DJF period on record with a 3-month mean maximum temperature of 88.9ºF as well as its highest 3-month mean minimum temperature (78.5ºF) on record. In FSM, Pohnpei logged its warmest DJF mean average temperature (83.2ºF) and its warmest mean minimum temperature (78.8ºF) on record.

2-meter surface air temperature rankings for the Dec 2024-Jan 2025 period for the Pacific Ocean region.
Source: ERA5 Reanalysis, B. Brettschneider, National Weather Service.


Water Resources – IIn Majuro (RMI), reservoir storage reached 85% of total capacity (36,000,000 gallons) on 2/25/25. Across the Hawaiian Islands, 7-day average streamflows (3/4/25) were below normal at numerous USGS gauging stations, including along Hawaii’s longest river, Wailuku River (9th percentile), at Piihonua, Hawaii.




Regional Climate Overview for Previous Quarter

Seasonal sea surface temperature anomaly map for 12/1/24 to 3/1/25 (left) and 3-month seasonal precipitation departures from normal for the December 2024–February 2025 period for the central and western tropical Pacific Ocean with warmer colors representing drier-than-normal conditions and cooler colors wetter-than-normal conditions (right).
Source: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (left); ERA5 Reanalysis, B. Brettschneider, National Weather Service (right).



By the end of the DJF period, SSTs were near to below normal across the central and east-central tropical Pacific Ocean, while above-normal SSTs were present in a shallow layer (upper 50 meters) in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean near South America. According to the NOAA CPC update (3/10/25), Niño region SST departures were as follows: Niño 3.4 at 0.0ºC, Niño 3 at 0.5ºC, Niño 1+2 at 1.6ºC, and Niño 4 at -0.3ºC.

Below-normal sea levels (~-5 to -10 cm anomalies) were observed in proximity to the equator (from ~5ºN to ~5ºS) during the DJF period in an area extending from the west-central Pacific Ocean through the east-central Pacific Ocean. In contrast, above-normal sea levels were observed in the Hawaiian Islands as well as across much of the western tropical Pacific, including in the Mariana Islands and areas of western FSM (~+5 to +10 cm anomalies), according to data from the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center.

During the DJF period, drought-free conditions prevailed across much of the USAPI until late January-February when drought conditions emerged in the Marianas (Saipan, Rota, Guam), areas of FSM (Yap, Pingelap), and in RMI (Kwajalein). For DJF precipitation totals, Airai (Palau) recorded 42.64 in. (125% of normal). In FSM, Yap observed 13.61 in. (62% of normal; 13th driest), Kapingamarangi 31.51 in. (96% of normal), Pohnpei 61.87 in. (154% of normal; 2nd wettest), Lukunor 32.96 in. (102% of normal), Kosrae 58.98 in. (110% of normal), and Chuuk 30.66 in. (103% of normal). In the Mariana Islands, Saipan observed 7.28 in. (72% of normal; 7th driest) and Guam 12.96 in. (87% of normal). In the RMI, Majuro observed 35.85 in. (126% of normal), while Kwajalein logged 9.46 in. (61% of normal; 12th driest). In Pago Pago, American Samoa, precipitation for DJF was well above normal (64.93 in., 161% of normal; 4th wettest). Moreover, the observing stations at Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge, located in the mountainous, higher-elevation terrain of the National Park of American Samoa, logged 52.90 in. and 39.26 in., respectively. In the Hawaiian Islands, dry conditions prevailed across most of the island chain during DJF, except for isolated areas of the Big Island, Maui, Molokai, and Oahu, which received significant rainfall and associated flash flooding during late-January, including in Honolulu, where a daily rainfall record (3.57 in.) was broken on 1/30/25. For the DJF period, Lihue observed 4.45 in. (40% of normal; 6th driest), Honolulu 6.11 in. (102% of normal), Molokai 3.72 in. (43% of normal; 6th driest), Kahului 5.08 in. (70% of normal), Kailua-Kona 4.07 in. (114% of normal), and Hilo 12.70 in. (42% of normal; 8th driest).

In the South Pacific region (east of 135ºE), tropical cyclone (TC) activity has been below normal, with 4 named storms and a regional Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index of 30 (normal 45.9) by 3/1/25, according to the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project.


Regional Climate Outlook for Next Quarter

Forecast for each of the three possible ENSO categories for the next 8 overlapping 3-month seasons. Blue bars show the chances of La Niña, gray bars the chances for neutral, and red bars the chances for El Niño (left); and ENSO forecast model predictions (right).
Source: NOAA CPC, Columbia University IRI.

According to the latest ENSO prediction model simulations (above right), La Niña conditions are expected to persist in the near-term. ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to emerge during the March-May 2025 period (66% chance). Moreover, the dynamical models in the IRI plume (above right) continue to predict persistence of ENSO-neutral conditions into the Northern Hemisphere summer as indicated by the Niña 3.4 index values falling between -0.5ºC and +0.5ºC. In terms of seasonal sea level anomalies, ACCESS-S2 and NOAA NCEP CFSv2 models suggest a dip in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, while elevated levels are expected in the western Pacific and around the Hawaiian Islands, according to the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (3/10/25).

The NOAA Coral Reef Watch four-month coral bleaching heat stress outlook (Mar-Jun 2025) calls for a high probability (90%) of high heat stress (Alert Level 1-2) developing in areas across the western tropical Pacific Ocean, including areas around the Gilbert Islands, New Guinea, and the Solomon Islands.

NOAA Coral Reef Watch four-month coral bleaching heat stress outlook for Mar-Jun 2025. Red and maroon colors represent areas with a high probability of coral bleaching heat stress Alert Levels 1 & 2.
Source: NOAA NESDIS.

Looking at the March-May 2025 precipitation forecast, normal rainfall amounts are favored for eastern FSM, American Samoa, and the Hawaiian Islands. Elsewhere, above-average precipitation is forecasted for areas of central and western FSM, Palau, and areas of the Mariana Islands, while below-normal rainfall is favored in RMI.


Information in the dashboard is grouped first by climate variable and/or impact and then by time frame. Click on any tab in the dashboard, it will expand to show an associated selection of panes. (Click again and it will collapse). Click on any figure in a pane to view a full-sized version, and click again to reduce it. Click on the “?” button to view the figure caption. Note that figures are automatically updated as often as the original providers post them on their respective websites (the update frequency is included in the caption). This means, the figures in the print version of the outlook may not be fully consistent with those found here. Click on the source URL to go to the site where the figure originated and find additional data and information.

Dashboard

Temperature & Precipitation

Recent/Current:

Latest Week of Global Rainfall

source: http://pmm.nasa.gov/TRMM/realtime-3hr-7day-rainfall


Current Total Precipitable Water

source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/wpac/main.html


NCEP Reanalysis Model - Air Temperature (Surface)

source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html


NCEP Reanalysis Model - Precipitable Water (Surface)

source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html


NCEP Reanalysis Model - Air Temperature Anomaly (Surface)

source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html


NCEP Reanalysis Model - Precipitable Water Anomaly (Surface)

source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html


NCEP Reanalysis Model - Relative Humidity (Surface)

source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html


NCEP Reanalysis Model - Sea Level Pressure

source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html


Tropical Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (OLRA) During the Last 30 Days

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


Time-Longitude Section of Anomalous OLR

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


ESRL 30-Day Average OLR Anomaly

source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml


GHCN-M Global Monthly Temperature Anomaly

source: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/ghcn-gridded-products/


Current Total Precipitable Water and Winds

source: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/


GPM Three-Month-Mean Satellite-Derived Precipitation Anomalies

source: https://pmm.nasa.gov/data-access/downloads/gpm


Forecast/Projections:

IRI Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Temperature

source: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Forecasts/Temperature.html


IRI Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation

source: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Forecasts/Precipitation.html


 
CFSv2 Three-Month-Mean Spatial Anomalies (Outlook) - Surface Air Temperature

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml


CFSv2 Three-Month-Mean Spatial Anomalies (Outlook) - Precipitation

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml


 
NMME Three-Month-Mean Spatial Anomalies (Outlook) - Surface Air Temperature

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/


NMME Three-Month-Mean Spatial Anomalies (Outlook) - Precipitation

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/


 

Drought & Stream Flow

Hawaii Drought Area Percentage

source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/


USGS Monthly Streamflow for Hawaii

source: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=hi


Tropical Cyclones & Storms

Tropical Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks

source: http://weather.unisys.com/


 
NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) - Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/


West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks

source: http://weather.unisys.com/


 
Global Tropical Hazards/Benefits Outlook

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/


East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks

source: http://weather.unisys.com/


Sea-Surface Temperatures, Ocean Conditions, & Impacts

Recent/Current:

SST Anomaly Animations - Tropical Pacific

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


SST Anomaly Animations - Equatorial Temperature Anomaly

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


Subsurface SST Anomaly - Tropical Pacific

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) Animations - SST Anomaly

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/


TAO/TRITON SST and Winds - Past 21 Days

source: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/


Coral Reef Watch Products - Bleaching Alert Areas

source: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/baa.php


Coral Reef Watch Products - Coral Bleaching Hotspots

source: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/hotspot.php


Coral Reef Watch Products - Degree Heating Weeks

source: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/dhw.php


OceanWatch - Central Pacific: Aqua MODIS Ocean Color

source: http://oceanwatch.pifsc.noaa.gov


OceanWatch - Central Pacific: Aquarius Sea-Surface Salinity

source: http://oceanwatch.pifsc.noaa.gov


OceanWatch - Central Pacific: GOES-POES Sea-Surface Temperature

source: http://oceanwatch.pifsc.noaa.gov


Forecast/Projections:

CFSv2 Three-Month-Mean Spatial Anomalies (Outlook) - Sea-Surface Temperature

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml


NMME Three-Month-Mean Spatial Anomalies (Outlook) - Sea-Surface Temperature

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/


Probability of Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress

source: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/outlook_cfs.php


Probablisitic Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Warning

source: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/outlook_cfs.php


Sea-Level & Waves

Recent/Current:

OSTM/Jason-3 Satellite Sea Level Residuals - 10 Day Averages

source: http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/


Forecast/Projections:

Pacific Region Sea-Surface Heights

source: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/


WaveWatch III - Pacific Region Wave Height and Direction

source: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-pacific-


 
 

ENSO & Other Climate Indices

Regional Partners

Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center:
http://www.weather.gov/peac/update
NOAA NWS Weather Forecast Office Honolulu :
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/hnl/
NOAA NWS Weather Forecast Office Guam:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/guam/
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information:
http://www.ncei.noaa.gov
NOAA NMFS Pacific Island Fisheries Science Center:
http://www.pifsc.noaa.gov/
NOAA OceanWatch - Central Pacific:
http://oceanwatch.pifsc.noaa.gov/
NOAA Coral Reef Watch:
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/
USGS Pacific Islands Water Science Center:
http://hi.water.usgs.gov/
USGS Science Center - Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center:
http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/
University of Hawaii - Joint Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Research:
http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/jimar/
University of Guam - Water and Environmental Research Institute:
http://www.weriguam.org/
University of Hawaii Sea Level Center:
http://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu/
University of Hawaii Asia-Pacific Data Research Center (APDRC)
http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/

Previous Climate Impacts and Outlook